It’s the All-Star Break, and there’s really no better time to make fantasy baseball trades. This is arguably the most boring sports week of the year, so you and all your leaguemates are just sitting around. Why not throw around some offers?
But when you’re starting to look at making some trades, it can often be hard to figure out where to start. Who do you sell high on? Who do you buy low on? Which struggling players just aren’t worth buying at all? Besides me spending too much time looking at this stuff (more on that below), we have some great resources available to us.
As you may or may not know, we have a fantastic Trade Analyzer Chart here on the site that you can use to gauge players’ current values. You’ll notice a few outliers in there that the algorithm will catch up to as we go, but this tool is an absolutely fantastic way to look at sell-high and buy-low players.
I’ll let you explore the chart (and an amazing Trade Analyzer Tool if you’re a premium member) on your own in a minute, but if you’re short on time, here are some players who are sticking out to me as of July 12.
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Top Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates
James Paxton, P, Boston Red Sox
I’ve written about Paxton as a waiver pickup, but I think it’s time to cash those chips in. While the 34-year-old has been lights-out in 2023 after missing most of the last two seasons, I’m not sure the wheels are going to stay on much longer. There’s always the possibility that he gets dealt (which would increase his value), but I have a hard time believing he’s going to finish with the best full-season ERA of his career. If you were smart (lucky?) enough to pick up Paxton from waivers a month or two ago, I think it’s time to dangle him and see if you can upgrade at a different position of need.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
I’m a big Jung fan and have enjoyed the unexpected boost he’s provided my fantasy teams. However, I’m not sure how much I buy into the fact that the 25-year-old (and All-Star!) will be able to finish as the second-best fantasy third baseman – which is where he’s currently at in the player rater for rotisserie leagues. Could he continue this pace? Absolutely. Is it worth seeing if you can sell him as a young All-Star who is currently the second-best fantasy third baseman and try to cash in on a stud pitcher or outfielder? Also absolutely.
Craig Kimbrel, P, Philadelphia Phillies
It’s pretty much always good business to sell closers when you can, and I think Kimbrel might be the poster boy for that strategy right now. The 35-year-old is having one of the best seasons of his last five years in the league and has apparently found the fountain of youth as his K/9 rate has jumped from 10.8 last year to 13.9 this year. He should continue to see save chances for the Phillies, but Jose Alvardo is there in case he falters and the 3.41 ERA isn’t exactly impeccable. If you can find a leaguemate in need of a closer and get any type of everyday player at a position of need or a solid starter, I think that’s a deal you have to make every time.
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Top Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Candidates
Eduardo Rodriguez, P, Detroit Tigers
Rodriguez was one of the biggest surprises of the early part of the season before a finger injury landed him on the Injured List. His value is likely still depressed a little as his first start back didn’t go as planned as he allowed five earned runs in four innings against the lowly A’s. That said, Rodriguez still has a 2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts in 71.2 innings, and I don’t want to get too caught up in one start. Your league mate who just waited a month for him to return might be caught up in that start though, so it’s worth seeing if you can buy low and hope he returns to his early-season form.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Truth be told, I’m not a big Alonso guy for fantasy purposes. But I am a value guy and I think there’s value to be had here currently. Alonso is doing what he normally does power-wise with 26 home runs right now, but he’s well below his past two year averages of .262 and .271 with a current average of .211. After hitting .152 through June, he hasn’t started July any better as he’s hitting .143 in the month so far so I guarantee you his fantasy owners are getting frustrated. If you think Alonso is going to hit around .200 for the rest of the season, keep moving and save your trade chips. However, if you think he’ll come back to his .254 career average for the rest of the season (which I do), then this is a spot where you can likely buy low.
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Julio Urias, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
We may have missed our chance to buy low, but it’s still worth a shot. After missing a month and a half on the Injured List, Urias had a rough first start back allowing five earned runs in three innings. His second start went better with just two earned runs allowed in six innings while striking out eight batters. That start may have been the beginning of his buy-low window slamming shut, but I think you can still probably get Urias on the cheap as his season ERA is still at 4.76. That said, the 26-year-old has finished three of the past four seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA so he has nowhere to go but down there. And he’s an 8.9 K/9 career pitcher, so he has a nice floor for strikeouts as well. Throw out some deals and see if you can get him for 50 cents on the dollar.
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